history repeat itself

THIS IS GOOD TO KNOW WE WILL SEE MINIMUM 10% RALLY FROM HERE 2684 WE CAN CASH IT ON

WHY YOU SHOULD BUY STOCK NOW NOV 2008 NIFTY 2972

WE ARE AT VERY IMPORTANT JUNCTURE IN THE WORLD STOCK MARKET.

EVERYTHING LOOK BAD . WE ARE WATCHING FOR WORST REPORT FUTHER BY EVERYBODY. BROKERAGE WHO WERE GIVING BUY CALL AND ALMOST ALL THE STOCK NOW COMING UP WITH SELL RECOMMANDATION OR REDUCE RATING . WE ARE GETTING THE TARGET WHICH ARE SO NICE TO HEAR (I HAVE ONE ANALYST TELLING ME IT WILL BE 1200 ON NIFTY ) WELL EVEN THE BLUECHANNELS TELLING RALLY IS JUST BEAR MARKET RALLY AND WHAT NOT.

SO WHY THIS HEADING “WHY YOU SHOULD BUY STOCK NOW”:

I HAVE OUTLINE SOME POINTS WHICH ASCERTAIN BAD TIME IN ECONOMY. THIS POINTS I CONSIDER DOES PROVIDE GOOD TIME FOR INVESTOR TO BUY STOCK AND INCREASE THE HOLDING IN HIS WELL RESEARCH COMPANY FOR INVESTMENT FOR LONG TERM.

DO YOUR OWN ANALYSIS BY GIVING THEM RATING FROM 1-5 AND IF THIS ADD UP TO MORE THAN 30 START BUYING AND BUY TILL THEY REACH 50 FOR BETTER FUTURE FOR YOU AND YOUR FAMILY AT LEAST FINANCIALLY.

NOW THE REASONS:

DEEP DROP: WELL MANY REPORT WHICH SAY 1500 DLF AND NOW FULL BASKET ,EK PE KE FREE ETC SEE THE PRICE SATTERED TO ALMOST 3 TO 30 % RANGE

DEPRESSION FEAR: WHENEVER THERE IS DEPRESSION ECONOMEY IS IN WORST CASE ENVIORNMENT SO IT CAN NOT BE GET BAD .YES IT WILL REQUIRE TIME TO PASS THIS PHASE

FINANCIAL FRAUD:WHEN WE HEAR MANY FRAUD CASES IT MEANS PEOPLE TRYING TO GET BAGFULL THROUGH WRONG WAY BECAUSE IT IS DIFFICULT TO DO RIGHT WAY

BANKRUPTCY:BIG ORGANISTION CAN NOT SURVIVE THE TURMOIL AND GO BUST. MEANS NO BIG EYE GLITTERING PLAN OR OVEROPTIMISTIC GROWTH IDEA AND FOREIGN TRIP MEETING BY SURVIVING CORPORATE ALL IN ALL COST CUTTING AT ITS BEST

ACCOUNTANCY FIRM GIVING WINDOW DRESSING: JUST TO HELP THE CLIENT FROM THE EYES OF BUTCHERING OPERATOR WHO SELLING EVERYTHING AND GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION. HOW COME A COMPANY WITH 2,00,000 CRORE FUND GO BANKRUPT SO FAST JUST THINK

TOP EXECUTIVES MAKING BIG MONEY:WELL COMPANY IS DOING BAD AND TOP BRASS WORKER ENJOYING LIFE U CAN UNDERSTAND WHY THEY ARE SELLING THEIR ESOPS

ANALYST FORCAST BAD:ALL ANALYST START FORCASTING BAD THINGS AS IF THERE IS NO TOMMOROW. THIS CREATE FEAR THAT WORST IS YET TO COME

FALLING INTEREST RATE:WELL THIS MAKE CHOICE EASIER AS INTEREST RETURN CAN NOT COVER THE INFLATION HENCE BETTER SOURCE REQUIRE YOU BE THE FIRST TO ENTER THAT SEGMENT YES STOCKS

GLOBLE TERRORISM : I THINK BIG ECONOMY WANT TERRORISM SO THEY CAN SPENT MONEY ON CURBING THEM AND EARN FORTUNE FOR BIG CORPORATES. WHEN TERRORISM RISE CONSIDER THING ARE NOT SAFE HENCE FEAR AND THUS BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO ENTER MARKET

WELL I HAVE NOT CONSIDER ANYTHING WHICH IS NORMALLY USED TO GAUGE THE MARKET CONDITION LIKE PE RATIO , GROWTH RATE , CYCLE ANALYSIS, DIVIDEND YIELD , BOOK VALUE ETC WELL THEY ALL ARE AVAILABLE TO EVERYBODY AND YOU MUST KNOW IT AND CONSIDER AS SECOND LEVEL OF THINKING

ALWAYS REMEMBER IN MARKET AS PRICE AND RISK ARE INVERTLY RELATED FOR GOOD STOCK I MEAN . SO LOW PRICE MAKE THE RISK MORE REWARDING .

SYMETRICAL GUIDELINE

HI ALL
MARKET IS OUTCOME OF PEOPLE’S BEHAVIOUR. PEOPLE’S BEHAVIOUR CHANGE WITH GENRATION TO GENRATION. SO WE ARE IN TIME OF 20-20 (TWENTY TWENTY) EVERYTHING IS SO FAST THAT BEFORE WE UNDERSTAND IT IS ALREADY OVER..

JULY 27TH ,2007 MKT AT 4647-11TH JAN 2008 MKT AT 6357 SIX MONTHS APPRECIATION ALMOST 37%

FROM THEIR LOW OF 3790 ON 18TH JULY 2008 FALL OF 40% AGAIN IN 6 MONTHS

WHAT IMPORTANT POINT I WANT TO MAKE IS MKT BEHAVING EXACTLY AS IT BEHAVE BEFORE 11TH JAN 2008

SEE FROM IN JULY 27TH 2007 MKT FROM 4647 FELL TO 4040 SIMILARLY FROM 3790 WE SAW THE RISE TO 4649 NOW ONE IMPORTANT POINT ON WEEKLY BASIS WE NEVER CLOSE BELOW 4000 

SO TO PREDICT MARKET JUST PRINT THE CHART OF NIFTY FOLD IN AT MID POINT OF 6357 AND WE GOT THE FUTURE PREDICTION 

WELL I HAVE PUT THE THING VERY LOOSELY THERE ARE SOME GENUINE FIB BASED STUDY IN IT ALL WHO WANT TO EMAIL ME

TODAY I WILL COVER ONE STOCK WHICH WAS OLD DARLING MTNL

GOOD LAND BASE AND RESERVE WITH SOME TRIGGER OF MERGER OR TAKEOVER CAN UNLOCK THE REAL VALUE . BUT MIND U UNLOCKING OF VALUE CAN TAKE TIME SO GO AHEAD BUY AT 90-70-50 WOW IF THIS LEVEL COMES BUT HAVE SPACE IN BANK FOR THIS STOCK 

PROBLEMS WITH TRADING

HI ALL

I TRIED TO GATHER THINGS WHICH ARE PROBLEMATIC FOR TRADING SUCCESS:

• POLITICS
• OPERATORS
• DOW AND OTHER MARKET
• OIL
• CURRENCY FOREX
• MONEY FLOW
• POLICY
• TERRORIST ATTACT
• FII MONEY FLOW AND LIQUIDITY
• GOVT. STABILITY
• BUSINESS ENVIORNMENT
• INTEREST RATE
• RBI POLICY 
• ETC ETC

JUST THEIR COULD HAVE BEEN ADDED OTHER 10/20 MORE POINTS DO U THINK ALL THIS CREAT PROBLEM FOR UR TRADING 

I THINK OTHERWISE . MY VIEW IS ALL THIS MAKE TRADING POSIBLE AS THEY LEAD TO MARKET FLUCTUATION WHICH IS MUST FOR TRADING BUSINESS.

SO THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IS NOT INSIDER TRADING,LACK OF INFORMATION , BAD ADVICE FROM YOUR BROKER OR YOUR ADVISOR IT IS Y O U YES  YOU YOUR EMOTIONS ,HIDDEN PSYCHOLOGICAL PROBLEMS AND PRECONCIEVED NOTIONS ARE THE BIGGEST ENEMIES IN ALL YOUR TRADE

SO  IT IS ALL UPTO U HOW U WANT TO IMPROVE UR SELF 

WATCHING CNBC OR NDTV IS LESS IMPORTANT RATHER DO SOme YOGA WHICH WILL BOOST UP UR MIND AND HENCE TRADING 

SEE U FOR NOW WILL SEE U AGAIN ON 18 TH AUG 2008

UR COMMENT AND VIEW AND PROBELM IS INVITED AT EMAIL ADD: palconindia@yahoo.com

WHO WINS IN THE MARKET?

HI ALL HOPE YOU ARE ENJOYING THE MARKET MOMENTS.
TODAY I WILL TELL YOU ABOUT THE : WHO WINS IN THE MARKET?
SIMPLE WHO CAN TUNE NICELY MARKET STRATEGY AND HIS OWN PERSONALITY IS BIG WINNER.
SO WHEN 90% OF THE MARKET MANS LOOKING FOR BIG HOT NEWS AND FOCUS ON INSIDE FACTOR IT IS NO WONDER THAT WE HAVE ALMOST SAME FAILURE PERCENT IN THE MARKET.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHAT IS HOT AND INSIDE NEWS BUT THAT DOES NOT MAKE THE WINNING TRADE.
THEIR WILL BE MORE THAN 1000 INDICATOR FOR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ,TREND, MOVING AVG THAT TOO OF MANY TYPES AND MANY TYPE OF SYSTEMS
NOW IN ALL THIS I THINK ONLY COMPUTER CAN IMBIBE ALL THIS WHILE TRADING. WELL EVEN IT FAILS BADLY.
FUNDAMENTS OF STOCK CHANGE WITH PRICE WE HAVE HAVE BUY RECOMMENDATION BY BROKERAGE HOUSE AT 21500 INDEX AND SELL AT 13000 THAT IS SURPRISING TO KNOW THAT THEY CONSIDER FUTURE .
EVEN WORLD RECOGNISED BIG FUND HOUSE HAVE SUCH RECOMMANDTION WHICH MAKE US SURPRISE OIL AT 135 THEY FORCAST 170 AND AT 125 THEY TELL 108 HEY WHATS GOING ON!
SO ALL IN ALL KNOW WHAT YOU MADE OF AND MAKE A PLAN ACCORDING TO YOUR STYLE TO BE WINNER IN THE MARKET.
IT IS THE SAME PRINCIPLE FOR LIFE SUCCESS WHICH NEED TO FOLLOW IN TRADING OR INVESTING.
THE PERSON WHO LIKE THRILL ,FAST SPORTS ,CHILLING OUT ATTITUTE CAN NOT BE WINNER WITH WARREN BUFFET STYLE.
SIMILARLY SILENT, INWARD , SOFT MUSIC PERSON WHO DOES NOT HAVE COURAGE TO FLING WITH GIRLS WILL NOT WIN DAY TRADE GAME.
SAME WITH THE KIND OF STOCK YOU TRADE . STOCK HAVE PERSONALITY LIKE US WHICH IS KNOW AS BETA HIGH MOMENTS HIGH VOLUME WILD ATTITUTE ETC. 
ONE OF MY CLIENT LIKE MTNL WHY HE SAY U GO ON WORLD TOUR AND COME BACK IT WILL BE NEAR UR BUY OR SELL LEVEL I SAID THAN WHY TO TRADE THAT STOCK.HE ANSWERED IT MOVE ONCE A WHILE WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR REST OF MONTH AND HOW TRUE IT IS 10/15 % MOVE ON A SIDE ONCE A MONTH IS GOOD BUSINESS.
SOME FIGHT FOR 1/2 RS MOVE ,FOR SOME IT IS T20 MATCH EVERYTHING IS RIGHT TILL YOU CAN EARN AND IT HAS SENSIBLE RISK REWARD .
WHEN ONE BUY FOR INTRA AND CARRY IF ITS IN LOSS THAT CLEARLY SHOW U ARE NOT MADE FOR INTRA TRADES BUT WE DONT UNDERSTAND IT.
ACCEPT WHAT U ARE AND GO AHEAD WITH LIKE PLAN AND HAVE A BALL IN MARKET.

WELL I M TALKING ABOUT PLAN AND STRATEGY HOW MANY OF TRADER HAVE IT? 
ACTUALLY THAT IS THE % OF THE WINNER IN MARKET SADLY VERY FEW.

JUST TRY FOR ONE MONTH TO TRADE WITH UNDERSTANDING UR PERSONALITY AND SUPPORTING PLAN YOU WILL LIKE THE OUTCOME FOR SURE.


NOW I WILL UPDATE MY BLOG ONCE A FORTHNIGHT FOR SURE SO U CAN CHECK ON 3RD AND 18TH OF EVERY MONTH FOR SOME THING NEW.


YOU CAN SEND UR VIEW TO ME ON palconindia@yahoo.com

NIFTY AT OUR DESIRED DESTINATION

HI ALL,

THANKS FOR YOUR SUPPORT AND ADVICE TO BE REGULAR IN WRITING . SURELY WILL MAKE IT REGULAR HABIT.

YESTERDAY I SAW SOME VERY INTERESTING THING IN PUT CALL TRADING.THOUGH RECENTLY THIS DATA HAS BECOME USELESS. BUT I CONSIDER IT IMPORTANT AS IT IS DONE BY BIG POCKET AND INSTITUTIONAL LEVEL HENCE THEIR THINKING IS REPLICATED IN IT

MOST OF THE HIGHLY TRADED CALL HAS ADDED THE OPEN INTEREST AND PUT SHEDED THEIR OPEN INTEREST IT MEANS SHORT BEARS ARE BOOKING THEIR PROFIT AND SOME VALUE BUYER OR BRAVEHEART OR CONTRARIANS ARE STARTING TO BUILD POSITION IN THE MKT THOUGH CATUIOSLY.

THIS IS IMPORTANT AS WE ARE PLACE AT SOME IMPORTANT JUNCTURE OF LEVEL .TRADING IS SIMPLY BUYING AT SUPPORTS AND SELLING AT RESISTANCE WITH GOOD MONEY MANAGEMENT STOP LOSS. SO THEIR IS GOOD OPPORTUNITY AT CURRENT LEVEL OF 3861 GO BUY GUYS THIS IS THE LEVEL WE HAVE WAITED FOR LONG TIME

RED HAT THINKING:

SUPPOSE WE TURN OUT TO BE ON THE WRONG SIDE WE HAVE GOOD SUPPORT AT THE LEVEL OF 3750 WATCH CHART AGAIN WHICH CAN BE USED AS STOP LOSS.

INVESTOR NEED NOT WORRY THEY WILL BUY AGAIN AT LOWER LEVEL WE HAVE DEFINE SO THEY ARE NOT BUYING ALL

ONE MORE THING :

WE HAVE SO MANY GAP DOWN IN THIS FALL LET MARKET GIVE A FILL TO SOME OF THEM SO RISE IS POSIBLE .

I REQUEST TO SEND ME THE FEED BACK AND TELL ME WHAT U THING MY YAHOO ID :palconindia

nifty update on 26 june 2008

Their has been some big break out down side on the nifty chart in the month of june we have seen break out down side on three front:
1)Trendline which was holding all the low from 2003 is broken and hold for more than 3 week
2)Head(CDE) And shoulder right(ABC)Left(EFG) Is broken down side which give tgt of 3250

3)Fib level for the rise from around 1000 level to 6300 levels is retrace to 38.2% At 4450 which holded twice making closing double bottom finally pierce now opening the gate for 50% (3700)To 61.8%(3250) Levels 

Above all this we are already below 50 days ema of 4881 which is broken and next level of support on the basis of moving avg can be consider at 200 days ema of 3726 which almost come near the 50% levels hence 3700 on nifty look most probable for now .

Their has been the cases of some good more than 50% retracement in past in the cycle of 7/8 years period and year 2008 is the year of new cycle and hence even cycle based it is likely to go till 6300*50% = 3150

All this is not for making you fearful but to take this wonderfull opportunity to get in to the market at various important junctures like 4450/3700/3200 .

where we are going to go ?where will be the bottom is not know to anybody . I never try also .What we can do is to know the mood of market and act according to it to gain maximum with our known risk.

All those who want to enter the market can buy their choice of research stock at this important levels of nifty.We firmly believe that market trend is most important factor for the performance of the stock , as in burning jungle every thing gets burn. 

Lets think from otherside :what if market has made the bottom at 4096 recent low and now going to only go up? As we have told all these are highly probable secnerio . Market is behaving this fashion for good six months now so the odd is in favour of the bears . Suppose this argument is true than  following factor need to happen on price front :

a)Their has to be some good indicator of reversal should be formed on chart like hammer , double bottom ,round bottom , bullish engulfing etc .

b)Market should go above the 50 days ema and rest their for some 2/3 weeks

c)Multi year Trendline again is to be broken upside and sustain their or new upward trend line is formed .

d)We as country get upgrade in rating for investment by fiis and get big positive fund inflow.

e)Some fundamental factor like inflation at reasonabel rate , sustain GDP growth rate of 9% , eased off crude oil price(or government declare to use animal for travelling and use cow duck for cooking etc.) ,indian corporate show growth in their earning for next two quaters, Govenement stablise , we have one big party winning in next election ,etc etc

we know their are many factors need to be done by bulls to carry on the rally.

So do not get excited by some 100/200 point rally have patience and buy at your own rates and enjoy the market .

OLD IS GOLD IS IT APPLY TO HUL

THIS FMCG GIANT WAS THE BEST PICK OF MANY FII AND MF IN PAST BUT DUE TO CONTINUOS FALL IN REVENUE DUE TO LOCAL BRAND AND CO HAS TAKE ITS THAT POSITION .RECENTLY WHEN MARKET IS MOVING DOWN IT IS HOLDING IT POST .WE SEE THAT AS GOOD SIGN AND ADVOCATE TO BUY FOR LONG TERM AT GIVEN SUPPORT LEVELS

ALTERNATIVE ENERGY WILL BE BIG BUSINESS SO START ACCUMULATING WHEN THEY ARE CHEAP

THEIR IS SOME GOOD VOLUME AND MOMENT IN LAST FEW DAY IN THE STOCK FOR INVESTOR WAIT AND BUY IN PANIC IS ALWAYS GOOD YES IT CAN GIVE U ALTERNATE ENERGY TO YOUR LONG TERM PORTFOLIO

RPL HUGE EXPECTATION WHEN START PRODUCTION

RELIANCE 'S BRAND CAN FETCH 12000 CRORES OF RUPEES WITHOUT HAVEING ANY WORK AND JUST PROJECTION. JUST THINK WHAT IF RPL START PRODUCTION WHERE THE PRICE WILL BE WITHOUT PRODUCTION IT STRECTCH ALL THE WAY TO 300
IF WE PUT PRICE TARGET OF RS.500 WHEN ACTUAL DATE COME OUT IN MKT IT IS GOOD BUY .
REMEMBER THE RISK OF DELAY SO BUY "AARAM SE"

INDIAN STOCK MAREKT REVIEW 2008

WE ARE IN ONE OF THE MOST DANGEROUS MONTH OF THE YEAR FOR STOCK MARKET. EVERY BODY IN THE MARKET KNOW THIS IS "MAY" FAMOUS FOR MAYHEM.
WILL THIS YEAR MAY 2008 WILL BE DIFFERENT ?
WE DON'T THINK SO.WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN THE TAILOR OF THE MOVIE IN LAST WEEK .
SO WHAT TO DO FOR REST OF THE YEAR 2008.
FOLLOWING ARE SOME GUIDELINES FOR OUR VALUED INVESTOR WHICH WILL HELP THEM TO ENJOY THE MONTH WHICH THEY FEAR.
· FOR INVESTOR THEIR IS ALWAYS OPPURTUNITY IN MARKET . BE CLEAR WHETHER YOU ARE TAKING POSITION FOR INVESTMENT OR TRADING.
· INVESTOR LOOK FOR LONG TERM GAIN SO ENTRY NEED TO BE AT SOME IMPORTANT POINT SO FALL IS MINIMUM.SO HE NEED NOT PANIC THE FALL .SO WHAT TO DO? SIMPLE BUY IN PANIC .
· TRADER DONT WORRY ABOUT MARKET CONDITION HE NEED TO FOCUS ON STOP LOSS.WE CONSIDER STOP LOSS IS GOD OF TRADER .
· KNOW YOUR STYLE AND PLAN ACCORDINGLY THE INVESTMENT STYLE.WARREN BUFFET IS ONLY ONE NOBODY IN WORLD SAID THAT HE FOLLOWED WARREN STYLE AND BECOME RICH .
· NO MIXING OF TRADING AND INVESTMENT THAT WILL SURE FORMULA OF JOINING THE CROWD WHO SAY "STOCK MARKET IS OF OPERATOR AND CHEATER".

FOR NEXT EIGHT MONTH WE DONT THINK { BASED ON SOME TECHNICAL } THAT MARKET IS GOOD .
SO WE ADVICE TO BUILD PORTFOLIO AT GIVEN LEVELS.

BUYING SHOULD BE DONE IN A WAY THAT YOUR FUND IS THEIR TILL THE 3600 IN NIFTY.
WE HAVE ALSO SELECTED SOME STOCK FOR YOU TO SHOW HOW U CAN DO THE RANGE BUYING AT SPECIAL TREND SUPPORT LEVELS.

SOON IF YOU FOLLOW SOME BLUEBULLMANTRAS YOU WILL KNOW THAT IN STOCK MARKET THERE IS NO SPECIFIC MONTH THAT IS BAD ACTUALLY ALL MONTHS ARE EQUAL.

NIFTY UPDATE ON 28 MARCH 2008

WHERE IS MARKET HEADED 8 MAR 2008

ALL WERE WAITING FOR BUDGET RALLY . BUDGET CAME AND GONE NO RALLY HAS TAKEN PLACE AS YET. LOT OF PEOPLE TALK ABOUT VARIOUS THING IN MARKET BUT HERE I TAKE AN INITIATIVE TO GIVE SOME IDEA ABOUT WHAT IS UP FOR INVESTORS OR TRADERS IN THE THIS UNCERTAIN MARKET. IN THE CHART ABOVE 5 YEARS WEEKLY CHART OF NIFTY ALL U CAN SEE THAT THEIR IS 50 MA BLUE LINE WHICH IS BEEN HELD MOST OF TIME NOW THIS TIME IT IS BREAKING 4975 IT SO THE NEXT TARGET FOR THE NIFTY IS 4000 WHERE IT HAD TAKEN SUPPORT TWO TIME PREVIOUSLY AND FINALLY 200 MA WHICH IS 3541 NOW IS THE FINAL STOP FOR THE YEAR THIS ALL WILL CHANGE ONLY IF WE CLOSE ABOVE 4975 ON WEEK BASIS AT LEAST TWICE . TILL THAN WHAT WE SHOULD DO IS TO SELL ON RISE AND BUY BACK AT SUPPORT WHICH ARE 4450 - 4000 -3550 MARKET NORMALLY DON'T FALL IN ONE STRAIGHT LINE IT WILL DO UP AND DOWN FOR INVESTOR IT IS IMP TO HAVE CASH AND LIQUIDITY TILL THE TARGET OF 3550 SO ASSETS DEPLOYMENT FOR THEM SHOULD BE IN A WAY 30% AROUND EACH SUPPORT .
FOR TRADER WITH LONG POSITION AT HIGHER LEVEL REMEMBER THAT PREVIOUS IDEA OF HOLDING THE STOCK FOR THE PRICE U BOUGHT WILL NOT HOLD GOOD NOW IN THIS YEAR SO ACT WITH HARD DECISION AND EXIT AT RESISTANCE OF RESPECTIVE STOCK.

IN THIS TOTAL MARKET STOCK WITH POSITIVE OUTLOOK ARE BPCL ,CIPLA, EIH , GLAXO ,HERO HONDA ,HIND UNILEVER AND MARUTI PURELY ON TECHNICAL REASON . HISTORICALLY PHARMA COUNTER DO WELL IN WEAK MKT AS IT IS NOW.
IF YOU WANT REGULAR UPDATE ON YOU MOBILE WE PROVIDE IT AND FOR CALL ON NIFTY CONTACT US ON palconindia@yahoo.com
DISCLOSURE: WE AND OUR CLIENT MIGHT HAVE POSITION IN THE STOCK WHICH WE HAVE DISCUSS .