nifty update on 26 june 2008

Their has been some big break out down side on the nifty chart in the month of june we have seen break out down side on three front:
1)Trendline which was holding all the low from 2003 is broken and hold for more than 3 week
2)Head(CDE) And shoulder right(ABC)Left(EFG) Is broken down side which give tgt of 3250

3)Fib level for the rise from around 1000 level to 6300 levels is retrace to 38.2% At 4450 which holded twice making closing double bottom finally pierce now opening the gate for 50% (3700)To 61.8%(3250) Levels 

Above all this we are already below 50 days ema of 4881 which is broken and next level of support on the basis of moving avg can be consider at 200 days ema of 3726 which almost come near the 50% levels hence 3700 on nifty look most probable for now .

Their has been the cases of some good more than 50% retracement in past in the cycle of 7/8 years period and year 2008 is the year of new cycle and hence even cycle based it is likely to go till 6300*50% = 3150

All this is not for making you fearful but to take this wonderfull opportunity to get in to the market at various important junctures like 4450/3700/3200 .

where we are going to go ?where will be the bottom is not know to anybody . I never try also .What we can do is to know the mood of market and act according to it to gain maximum with our known risk.

All those who want to enter the market can buy their choice of research stock at this important levels of nifty.We firmly believe that market trend is most important factor for the performance of the stock , as in burning jungle every thing gets burn. 

Lets think from otherside :what if market has made the bottom at 4096 recent low and now going to only go up? As we have told all these are highly probable secnerio . Market is behaving this fashion for good six months now so the odd is in favour of the bears . Suppose this argument is true than  following factor need to happen on price front :

a)Their has to be some good indicator of reversal should be formed on chart like hammer , double bottom ,round bottom , bullish engulfing etc .

b)Market should go above the 50 days ema and rest their for some 2/3 weeks

c)Multi year Trendline again is to be broken upside and sustain their or new upward trend line is formed .

d)We as country get upgrade in rating for investment by fiis and get big positive fund inflow.

e)Some fundamental factor like inflation at reasonabel rate , sustain GDP growth rate of 9% , eased off crude oil price(or government declare to use animal for travelling and use cow duck for cooking etc.) ,indian corporate show growth in their earning for next two quaters, Govenement stablise , we have one big party winning in next election ,etc etc

we know their are many factors need to be done by bulls to carry on the rally.

So do not get excited by some 100/200 point rally have patience and buy at your own rates and enjoy the market .